Jones cited a recent study by Scharer that found that earthquakes happen at the San Andreas around the Grapevine on average every 100 years. "I think it's going to go all the way to Paso Robles," Jones said of the next Big One. So that's probably the biggest we can have," Jones said. and "if it goes all the way from the way from the Salton Sea to near Paso Robles, we'd get an 8.2. traveled up to Lake Hughes, the earthquake would clock in at 7.8. stopped at the Cajon Pass, it would be a magnitude 7.6 or 7.7 seismic event. ended at Mount San Gorgonio, it would be a 7.3 earthquake. So, according to seismologist Lucy Jones, if a San Andreas earthquake began at the Salton Sea and. And this becomes more important for large earthquakes, which require an incredible amount of area in which the sides of the fault move against each other. The traditional image of an earthquake might be to show the epicenter - the point at which the earthquake begins.Ī better representation of a large earthquake would show how the earthquake travels up the fault. might seem like something you might not worry about.īut a magnitude 8.2 earthquake is no ordinary earthquake. Why a quake that begins so far away mattersĪn earthquake that begins more than 100 miles from L.A. "It's shooting all of that energy straight into the L.A. In a magnitude 8.2 scenario, the earthquake would begin at the Salton Sea, and then - like a big rig driving on a freeway - speed up the San Andreas Fault toward Los Angeles County. Shaking could last for as long as three minutes. There's a reason why this particular scenario vexes scientists:Īn earthquake arriving from this direction would point cataclysmic shaking directly into the heart of L.A., a kind of disaster that has not been seen since humans began recording history in California. In one exposed cliff, USGS research geologist Kate Scharer showed how one side of a hill has moved northward and skyward compared with the right side - and the gouge in the hillside between them was the fault.įarther away, Scharer described how an old lower canyon was severed from the upper canyon and its ancient source of water. The oases and palm trees - made possible only because earthquakes pulverized rocks that allowed springs to burst to the surface.Ī geologist's trained eye can even spot exactly where the fault is located. In Desert Hot Springs, hints of the mighty San Andreas Fault lie all over: The rise of mountains that created the Coachella Valley. But the geological evidence of such quakes is all around us. Southern California has not seen an earthquake like this since humans started recording history here. Such a quake would be particularly dangerous because the fault's shape points shaking energy toward Los Angeles. ![]() One of the most dire scenarios geologists have studied is a quake that begins at the Salton Sea. Other problem spots are the Tejon Pass, through which Interstate 5 passes, and the Palmdale area, through which the California Aqueduct crosses. ![]() ![]() Southern California's cities are surrounded by mountains, making access through narrow passes like the San Gorgonio essential.Įxperts have also expressed grave concerns about the Cajon Pass, where Interstate 15 and key electric and fuel lines run. They worry a huge quake could sever lifelines at the pass for weeks or months, cutting Southern California off from major highway and rail routes as well as sources of power, oil and gas. ![]() It's also the path for crucial power transmission lines.Ĭalifornia earthquake experts believe what happens at the San Gorgonio Pass during a major rupture of the San Andreas Fault could have wide-ranging implications for the region and beyond. Through it runs an essential aqueduct that feeds Southern California water from the Colorado River as well as vital transportation links. The pass sits at a key geological point, separating the low desert from the Inland Empire, and, beyond that, the Los Angeles Basin. But for geologists, the narrow desert canyon is something of a canary in the coal mine for what they expect will be a major earthquake coming from the San Andreas Fault. The pass is best known for the spinning wind turbines that line it.
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